Spatially explicit population responses of crayfish Procambarus alleni to potential shifts in vegetation distribution in the marl marshes of Everglades National Park,USA

Hydropattern disturbance has had wide-ranging impacts on wetland communities of the Florida Everglades, especially on the habitats and the aquatic biota of the seasonally flooded marl marshes. We used the Everglades crayfish Procambarus alleni as a model to study the associations among hydrology, vegetation distribution, and population dynamics to assess the potential impacts of hydrological changes on the aquatic faunal community in Everglades National Park. To classify benthic habitats as sources or sinks for the crayfish population, we quantified vegetation community structure using GIS maps in which dominant vegetation types were weighted by local hydroperiod (length of inundation). Regression analysis showed that this habitat classification was associated with crayfish density distribution. We then used a spatially explicit, stage-structured population model to describe crayfish population fluctuations under current environmental conditions and to simulate the potential population-level responses to habitat changes that might occur following hydrological restoration. In habitat that was initially saturated with crayfish, the crayfish population size declined under current environmental conditions and then stabilized at about 13% of the initial density over a 50-year period. A 4-month increase in hydroperiod was then simulated by converting shorter-hydroperiod Muhlenbergia-dominated marsh habitat to longer-hydroperiod Cladium-dominated marshes. The model predicted a rapid 7-fold increase in crayfish density following the simulated habitat restoration. This indicated that several functional effects may result from the restoration of historical hydropatterns in marl marshes: (1) the areal extent of habitat sinks will be reduced to isolated patches, whereas the spatial distribution of aquatic source habitats will expand; (2) crayfish population size will increase and persist over time; (3) the minimum threshold needed to increase secondary aquatic productivity may be a 7-month hydroperiod over 90% of the marl marsh landscape. Restoration of historical hydropatterns could thus have cascading positive effects throughout the Everglades aquatic food web.