Assessment of ecological vulnerability and decision-making application for prioritizing roadside ecological restoration: A method combining geographic information system,Delphi survey and Monte Carlo simulation |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. CAS, Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;4. Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Biology, Biodiversity/Theoretical Ecology, Berlin 14195, Germany;5. School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;6. Key Lab of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research of Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330028, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;1. MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, 2163 Vácrátót, Alkotmány u. 2-4. Hungary;2. Dept. Plant Taxonomy, Ecology, and Theoretical Biology, Loránd Eötvös University, Budapest, Pázmány Péter stny. 1/c, Budapest, Hungary |
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| Abstract: | Study experience of ecologist plays an important role in assessing the contribution of different influencing factors to ecological vulnerability, helping policy makers to target measures for ecological restoration. However, uncertainty is unavoidable due to variation of study experience among experts. In this study, a new method that combines Delphi survey, geographic information system and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed to assess regional ecological vulnerability and to quantify the uncertainty of assessing result. We illustrated the capacity of this method by using a case study in northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. An index system for 13 spatial variables was established to calculate an ecological vulnerability index (EVI) from the three aspects of ecological sensitivity (ES), ecological resilience (ER) and natural-social pressure (NSP). The assessment shows that the southwestern region of the study area, especially in the counties of Sonid Left and Right, was seriously threatened by a high ES and a low ER. Onguiud county in the Greater Hinggan Mountains had a high EVI due to an intensive NSP. Based on the assessing result and regional road distribution, an EVI cost curve was created to facilitate the prioritization of allocating limited funds among the various counties for roadside ecological restoration. |
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| Keywords: | Ecological vulnerability assessment Monte Carlo GIS Uncertainty Fund allocation |
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