Adult cold tolerance and potential North American distribution of Myllocerus undecimpustulatus undatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Cold tolerance and potential distribution of Myllocerus undecimpustulatus undatus Marshall, a polyphagous pest in the United States, were investigated. Adult survivorship after 2 days at 0 °C and ??5 °C averaged 60% and 18%, respectively. Four days of exposure resulted in survivorship of 11% at 0 °C and 4% at ??5 °C, respectively. Summer-collected weevils at ??5 °C through repeated cold exposure of 2 h survived 3 times longer than those subjected to sustained cold period of 10 h. Leaf consumption did not differ among summer-collected weevils at constant 20 °C and repeated cold exposure treatments; weevils under sustained cold exposure consumed less than weevils in repeated cold exposure treatments. Leaf area consumed after cold exposure was 2–4 times greater in winter-collected weevils compared to summer-collected weevils. Leaf consumption by winter-collected weevils decreased as the number of repeated cold exposure periods increased. Locality data from collections in Florida during 2000–2012 were used to produce a correlative model complemented by a mechanistic model from the cold tolerance data to project the potential distribution of M. undecimpustulatus undatus in North America. The models support the hypothesis that M. undecimpustulatus undatus could spread to areas of the southeastern and western United States. The predicted northern distribution followed an isothermal line about 33° North. The niche model defined an area along the western Gulf Coast as unsuitable for the weevil, possibly because the area receives greater annual rainfall than other areas of the southeastern United States and has aquic or udic soil unlike the well-drained sandy soil of peninsular Florida.