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Predicting non-native insect impact: focusing on the trees to see the forest
Authors:Schulz  Ashley N  Mech  Angela M  Ayres  Matthew P  Gandhi  Kamal J K  Havill  Nathan P  Herms  Daniel A  Hoover  Angela M  Hufbauer  Ruth A  Liebhold  Andrew M  Marsico  Travis D  Raffa  Kenneth F  Tobin  Patrick C  Uden  Daniel R  Thomas  Kathryn A
Institution:1.Department of Agricultural Biology, Colorado State University, 1177 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
;2.School of Biology and Ecology, 5751 Murray Hall, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, USA
;3.Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, 78 College Street, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
;4.Daniel B. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, 180 E. Green St., Athens, GA, 30602, USA
;5.USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 51 Mill Pond Rd., Hamden, CT, 06514, USA
;6.The Davey Tree Expert Company, 1500 N Mantua St., Kent, OH, 44240, USA
;7.Southwest Biological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 520 North Park Ave., Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA
;8.Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, 1021 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
;9.USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 180 Canfield St., Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA
;10.Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamycká 129 165 00 Praha 6 – Suchdol, Prague, Czech Republic
;11.Department of Biological Sciences, Arkansas State University, PO Box 599, State University, AR, 72467, USA
;12.Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, 1630 Linden Dr., Madison, WI, 53706, USA
;13.School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, 3715 W Stevens Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
;14.Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 3310 Holdrege Street, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA
;
Abstract:

Non-native organisms have invaded novel ecosystems for centuries, yet we have only a limited understanding of why their impacts vary widely from minor to severe. Predicting the impact of non-established or newly detected species could help focus biosecurity measures on species with the highest potential to cause widespread damage. However, predictive models require an understanding of potential drivers of impact and the appropriate level at which these drivers should be evaluated. Here, we used non-native, specialist herbivorous insects of forest ecosystems to test which factors drive impact and if there were differences based on whether they used woody angiosperms or conifers as hosts. We identified convergent and divergent patterns between the two host types indicating fundamental similarities and differences in their interactions with non-native insects. Evolutionary divergence time between native and novel hosts was a significant driver of insect impact for both host types but was modulated by different factors in the two systems. Beetles in the subfamily Scolytinae posed the highest risk to woody angiosperms, and different host traits influenced impact of specialists on conifers and woody angiosperms. Tree wood density was a significant predictor of host impact for woody angiosperms with intermediate densities (0.5–0.6 mg/mm3) associated with highest risk, whereas risk of impact was highest for conifers that coupled shade tolerance with drought intolerance. These results underscore the importance of identifying the relevant levels of biological organization and ecological interactions needed to develop accurate risk models for species that may arrive in novel ecosystems.

Keywords:
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