气候变化背景下中国冷杉属植物地理分布模拟分析

中国是世界上冷杉属（Abies Mill.）植物种类最为丰富、分布地域最广的国家，也是研究冷杉属植物分布成因与规律的关键地区。本文通过中国数字植物标本馆、全球生物多样性信息数据库和相关文献三种途径收集我国冷杉属植物的地理分布数据，结合当前和未来气候情景，应用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）模拟冷杉属植物的潜在分布，并使用GIS的空间分析功能做生境适宜性分析，评估我国各地区对冷杉属植物的保护能力。结果显示：（1）四川西南部、云南北部、西藏自治区东南部是我国冷杉属植物分布的热点地区；（2）在未来气候变化情景下，我国冷杉属植物的适宜生境面积将明显减少；（3）适宜生境在未来有向北迁移的趋势；（4）就各地区保护能力而言，在当前气候情景下，云南省的保护能力最高，在未来，我国西部地区的保护能力呈上升趋势，中部和东部地区呈下降趋势。本研究可为冷杉属植物的保护工作提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。

Analysis of Geographical Distribution of Abies in China under Climate Change

China is the country which has the most abundant and the widest geographical distribution of Abies Mill. species in the world. It is also the key area for studying the causes and law of Abies distribution. We collected the data of geographical distribution of Abies in China in three ways: Chinese Virtual Herbarium, Global Biodiversity Information Facility and relevant literatures. Based on the current and future climate scenarios, the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt) was used to simulate the potential distribution of Abies. Also, we analysed of habitat suitability and evaluated the protective capability of various regions in China, using GIS spatial analysis functions. The results showed that: (1)Southwestern Sichuan, northern Yunnan, as well as southeastern Tibet are the hot spots for Abies in China; (2)The area of suitable habitat of Abies in China will significantly reduce under the future climate change scenario; (3)The suitable habitat has the tendency of moving northwards in the future; (4)Yunnan province has the highest protective capability under the current climate scenario. Under the future climate change scenario, the protective capability of the western regions in China will increase, while that of the central and eastern regions will decline. This study can provide a theoretical basis and reference value for the protection of Abies.