Using GIS to model tree population parameters in the Rocky Mountain National Park forest–tundra ecotone

Climatic change may alter vegetation composition and structure, but the response to climatic change can be expected to be spatially heterogeneous. Tree populations in the alpine forest–tundra ecotone, for example, may find only certain locations to be favourable for regeneration and growth. If monitoring and detection of vegetation responses to climatic change is to be most successful, the monitoring system must be tuned to the locations where a response is most likely. We used the grass geographical information system ( gis ) to map population parameters indicating potential change throughout the forest–tundra ecotone (FTE) of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). Seedling density in patch forest and krummholz openings, as well as annual krummholz height growth, were measured in the field. These parameters were then modelled over the heterogeneity of the FTE environment, using principle components regression analysis. The grass gis was used to extrapolate the resulting predictive equations to the entire RMNP FTE. Potential FTE responses to climate change were evaluated in the context of species-specific differences in how tree seedling density and krummholz height growth are associated with the present environment. For example, climate change leading towards moister conditions, causing currently xeric environments to become more mesic, might increase the spatial extent of existing tree invasion into patch forest openings. This would increase the potential for widespread conversion of patch forest to closed forest. Present population parameters extrapolated spatially may provide a useful guide to where future change is likely.