Laying date,body mass and tick infestation of nestling tropical Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii predict fledging success,first‐year survival and age at first return to the natal colony

Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.