The Expected Number of Background Disease Events during Mass Immunization in China |
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| Authors: | YouXin Wang LiJuan Wu XinWei Yu FeiFei Zhao Alyce Russell ManShu Song Wei Wang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.; 2. Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China.; 3. College of Life Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.; 4. School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia.; Public Health Ontario, Canada, |
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| Abstract: | It is critical to distinguish events that are temporarily associated with, but not caused by, vaccination from those caused by vaccination during mass immunization. We performed a literature search in China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Pubmed databases. The number of coincident events was calculated based on its incidence rate and periods after receipt of a dose of hypothesized vaccine. We included background incidences of Guillain-Barré syndrome, anaphylaxis, seizure, sudden adult death syndrome, sudden cardiac death, spontaneous abortion, and preterm labour or delivery. In a cohort of 10 million individuals, 7.71 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome would be expected to occur within six weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. Even for rare events, a large number of events can be expected in a short period because of the large population targeted for immunization. These findings may encourage health authorities to screen the safety of vaccines against unpredictable pathogens. |
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