Lifesaving explains mortality decline with time |
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Authors: | Finkelstein M S |
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Affiliation: | Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, 9300 Bloemfontein, Republic of South Africa. FinkelM.SCI@mail.uovs.ac.za |
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Abstract: | Mortality rates of human populations in developed countries are declining with time. We show that this effect can be explained via a 'lifesaving' methodology. Our approach is based on considering a non-homogeneous Poisson process of potentially harmful events. Each of these events can be 'cured' with a given probability or can result in a termination of the Poisson process (death) with a complementary probability. A lifesaving ratio, defining the corresponding relative increase in life expectancy for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is analyzed. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered. |
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Keywords: | Lifesaving Minimal repair Poisson process Gompertz law of mortality Heterogeneous populations |
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