Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound,WA, USA |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Joint Office for Science Support. Visiting Scientist at Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112, United States;2. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Box 355672, Seattle, WA 98195, United States;3. School of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Washington Bothell, 18115 Campus Way NE, Box 358538, Bothell, WA 98011, United States;1. Library of Marine Samples, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Geoje 656-830, Republic of Korea;2. South Sea Institute, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Geoje 656-830, Republic of Korea;3. Department of Life Science, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Republic of Korea;4. Pukyung National University, Busan 608-737, Republic of Korea;5. National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Busan 619-705, Republic of Korea;6. Korea Basic Science Institute, Jeju 690-140, Republic of Korea;1. University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Box 357940, Seattle, 98195 WA, USA;2. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 91125 CA, USA;3. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Joint Office for Science Support, Visiting Scientist at Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2725 Montlake Blvd E. , Seattle, 98122 WA, USA;1. Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA;2. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA;3. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Biological Station, St. Andrews, NB, E5B 0E4, Canada;4. Laboratoire d’Océanologie et des Geosciences, UMR LOG 8187, Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale, Wimereux, France;1. Leibniz Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde, Seestr. 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany;2. Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00790 Helsinki, Finland;3. University of Copenhagen, Marine Biological Section, Strandpromenaden 5, 3000 Helsingør, Denmark;4. Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany;5. Department of Biochemistry/Biotechnology, University of Turku, Kiinamyllynkatu 10, 20520 Turku, Finland;6. Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres (ICBM), Schleusenstr. 1, 26382 Wilhelmshaven, Germany;7. Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias. Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Ambientes Sustentables. Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción. Alonso de Ribera 2850, 4090541, Concepción, Chile;8. University of Århus, Institute for Bioscience, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark;1. Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines;2. Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Region V, San Agustin Pili, Camarines Sur, Philippines;3. Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Main, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines |
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| Abstract: | This study uses a mechanistic modeling approach to evaluate the effects of various climate pathways on the proliferative phase of the toxin-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Experimentally derived Alexandrium growth responses to temperature and salinity are combined with simulations of the regional climate and Salish Sea hydrology to investigate future changes in the timing, duration, and extent of blooms. Coarse-grid (100–200 km) global climate model ensemble simulations of the SRES A1B emissions scenario were regionally downscaled to a 12-km grid using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for the period 1969–2069. These results were used to: (1) analyze the future potential changes and variability of coastal upwelling winds, and (2) provide forcing fields to a Regional Ocean Model System used to simulate the circulation of the Salish Sea, including Puget Sound, and the coastal ocean. By comparing circa-1990 and circa-2050 climate scenarios for the environmental conditions that promote Alexandrium blooms, we disentangle the effects of three climate pathways: (1) increased local atmospheric heating, (2) changing riverflow magnitude and timing, and (3) changing ocean inputs associated with changes in upwelling-favorable winds. Future warmer sea surface temperatures in Puget Sound from increased local atmospheric heating increase the maximum growth rates that can be attained by Alexandrium during the bloom season as well as the number of days with conditions that are favorable for bloom development. This could lead to 30 more days a year with bloom-favorable conditions by 2050. In contrast, changes in surface salinity arising from changes in the timing of riverflow have a negligible effect on Alexandrium growth rates, and the behavior of the coastal inputs in the simulations suggests that changes in local upwelling will not have major effects on sea surface temperature or salinity or Alexandrium growth rates in Puget Sound. |
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| Keywords: | Harmful algae HAB Climate change Puget Sound |
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