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Decision analysis for the planning and assessment of ex situ management: An application to the endangered mahogany glider |
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| Authors: | Tracy M Rout Stephen M Jackson Dalene Adam Jacqui Diggins Eve McDonald-Madden Nicola J Mitchell Terry V Walshe |
| Institution: | 1. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072 Australia;2. Australian Museum Research Institute, Australian Museum, Sydney, New South Wales, 2010 Australia
Division of Mammals, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, District of Columbia, 20013-7012 USA School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, 2052 Australia Contribution: Data curation (equal), Investigation (equal), Writing - original draft (supporting), Writing - review & editing (equal);3. The University of Queensland Hidden Vale Research Station (Wildlife Centre), 617 Grandchester Mount Mort Rd, Grandchester, Queensland, 4340 Australia Contribution: Data curation (equal), Investigation (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal);4. Terrain Natural Resource Management, 63 Anderson St, Manunda, Queensland, 4870 Australia Contribution: Data curation (equal), Investigation (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal);5. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072 Australia Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Funding acquisition (equal), Project administration (equal), Supervision (lead), Writing - review & editing (equal);6. School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia, 6009 Australia Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Funding acquisition (equal), Project administration (equal), Supervision (supporting), Writing - review & editing (equal);7. School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010 Australia Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Data curation (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Investigation (equal), Methodology (equal), Visualization (equal), Writing - original draft (supporting), Writing - review & editing (equal) |
| Abstract: | Ex situ (‘off-site’) management refers to keeping species in artificial conditions away from their natural habitat and includes captive breeding facilities, botanical gardens and seed banks. There is scope for ex situ programmes to be more commonly used for supplementing or establishing wild populations. However, undertaking ex situ management comes with risks, costs and uncertainties, which must be assessed in the context of available in situ (‘on-site’) management options. The PACES (Planning and Assessment for Conservation through Ex situ management) tool tailors the principles of structured decision-making to the specific problem of assessing and comparing ex situ and in situ management options. We applied the PACES tool to the mahogany glider (Petaurus gracilis), a threatened arboreal marsupial endemic to north Queensland, Australia. Through an expert elicitation process, we predicted the likely benefits of an ex situ and two in situ management options, as compared to a baseline ‘do-nothing’ scenario. The ‘in situ plus’ alternative (where extra resources are dedicated to in situ management) was predicted to result in the largest population increase according to the participants' best estimates. However, this benefit came at a much larger cost than the ex situ alternative, and without the benefit of an ex situ insurance population. The PACES tool assessment allowed the Mahogany Glider Recovery Team to document and plan the financial costs, risks and benefits of potential future management options for the mahogany glider, laying a transparent basis for future assessment and decision-making. |
| Keywords: | captive breeding decision tool decision tree event tree expert elicitation structured decision-making value judgements |