Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 |
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| Authors: | Hiroshi Nishiura Gerardo Chowell Muntaser Safan and Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
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| Institution: | (1) PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, 332-0012 Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan;(2) Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 Utrecht, CL, The Netherlands;(3) Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, 85282 Tempe, AZ, USA;(4) Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 20892 Bethesda, MD, USA;(5) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, 35516 Mansoura, Egypt;(6) Santa Fe Institute, 87501 Santa Fe, NM, USA |
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| Abstract: | Background In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make
statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage
of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. |
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