陕西不同地区栓皮栎种群年龄结构动态模型的研究

栓皮栎种群动态模型能阐明其自然种群动态的规律,揭示种群的内在机制和对种群行为进行预测。矩阵模型是一种i状态分布方法,依靠矩阵形式来处理种群的特征分布,可以模拟和预测种群中各个年龄组的数量动态和年龄结构的变化,它能够从目前已知的年龄结构及种群的生存率和生育率,来推测种群的未来年龄结构。在研究栓皮栎种群动态时,也借用该模型对栓皮栎种群各年龄组的结构和数量动态作出预测。Leslie矩阵模型就是该模型中的一种,利用该模型的理论和方法,对栓皮栎种群的自然变化过程进行了模拟和预测。结果发现,从分布中心到分布边缘,随着生境的差异,栓皮栎种群产生幼苗的年龄级、内禀增长率、生育力和幼苗的数量都发生变化,预测结果与实际反映的情况基本一致,表明Leslie矩阵模型是一种较为理想的反映种群动态的模型。模型表达形式简单,参数生态学意义确切,应用精度高,从而达到准确预测栓皮栎种群动态的目的。

Study on dynamics model of age structure of Quercus variabilis in different region in Shaanxi

Quercus variabilis population dynamics model can illustrate the law of natural population dynamics and its regulate mechanism, it can post the inherent regulation and forecast the behaviors of population. Matrix model is a kind of "i" state distribution method, it can deal with characteristic distribution of population relying on matrix form, and can simulate and predict the amount dynamics and age structure of population in every age group.We can predict the amount dynamics and age structure of population in every age group depending on the model when we research the dynamics of Quercus variabilis population. It shows, the age class of seedlings of production,inherent increase ratio,fecundity and amount of seedlings of Quercus variabilis population, the result is consistent with actual instance, it indicates, Leslie matrix model is a kind of perfect model of reflecting population dynamics. The model expression form is simple, parameter's ecological meaning is accurate, and the application accuracy is high, it can attain the purpose of predicting Quercus variabilis population dynamics well and truly.