基于MaxEnt模型的白缘象甲潜在地理分布区识别

【目的】白缘象甲Naupactus leucoloma是中国进境植物检疫性有害生物，对农作物和栽培植物的潜在危害风险较高。自20世纪在美国被首次发现以来，在全球多个国家内发生扩散，造成严重的经济损失。本研究旨在对白缘象甲的潜在地理分布区进行识别并进一步分析其定殖和扩散风险。【方法】基于白缘象甲的752个有效分布记录和10个环境变量，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对白缘象甲的潜在地理分布区进行识别，同时综合环境变量贡献率和刀切法(jackknife)检验评估制约其潜在地理分布的重要环境变量。【结果】白缘象甲在全球的潜在适宜生境主要分布在美国东南部、法国西南部地区、西班牙北部地区、土耳其西北部地区等地，在我国暂时没有其高适宜生境的分布。在我国适宜生境的分布集中在中部和东部沿海地区10余个省份。在影响白缘象甲潜在地理分布的环境变量中，以最干月降水量、年平均气温和最冷月最低温为重要影响变量，其中气温起主导作用。【结论】白缘象甲有一定的入侵、定殖和扩散风险。建议农林行业部门、海关口岸加强调查、检疫和监控工作，严防白缘象甲传入对我国农作物造成危害。

Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of Naupactus leucoloma (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) based on the MaxEnt model

【Aim】 The plant quarantine pest in China, Naupactus leucoloma, makes serious potential damage to crops and cultivated plants. Since it was first discovered in the United States in the 20th century, it has spread in many countries around the world, causing serious economic losses. This study aims to model the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma and further analyze its colonization and proliferation risk. 【Methods】 Based on 752 effective distribution records of N. leucoloma and 10 environmental variables, the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma was simulated by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The important environmental variables governing its potential geographical distribution were also evaluated by the environmental variable contribution rates and the jackknife test. 【Results】 The potential suitable habitats for N. leucoloma worldwide are mainly in the southeastern United States, southwestern France, northern Spain, and northwestern Turkey in Europe. It can be also mainly distributed in the central and eastern coastal areas of China, while there was no highly suitable habitat for N. leucoloma in China yet. Analysis of environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma showed that the important environmental variables include the precipitation of the driest month, annual mean air temperature, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, with the air temperature playing a key role. 【Conclusion】 N. leucoloma has certain invasion, colonization and dispersal risk. It is recommended that customs strengthen quarantine and monitoring work to prevent the introduction of N. leucoloma into China to cause damage to crops.