Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight |
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Authors: | Adam H. Sparks Gregory A. Forbes Robert J. Hijmans Karen A. Garrett |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, , Manhattan, KS, 66506 USA;2. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), , Los Ba?os, Laguna, 4031 Philippines;3. International Potato Center, , Beijing, 100081 China;4. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, , Davis, CA, 95616 USA |
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Abstract: | Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20‐year time‐slices: 2000–2019, 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo‐Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro‐ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. |
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Keywords: | climate change food security
Phytophthora infestans
plant disease management plant pathology potato late blight |
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