Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird |
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Authors: | A. Shoji S. Aris-Brosou A. Culina A. Fayet H. Kirk O. Padget I. Juarez-Martinez D. Boyle T. Nakata C. M. Perrins T. Guilford |
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Affiliation: | 1.Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK;2.Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, K1N 6N5 |
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Abstract: | Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals. |
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Keywords: | phenology, migration, machine learning, adaptive boosting, multi-event capture– mark– recapture model |
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