Demographic analysis of a dominant shrub (Cytisus scoparius): Prospects for encroachment control

Shrub encroachment in pastoral areas subsequent to land-use changes has become a major problem for biodiversity and pastoral resource conservation. Controlling encroachment by grazing is the most promising prospect at this time, but the impact of small domestic ruminants on the population dynamics of dominant shrubby species is still poorly understood. To control the rapid densification of dominant shrub populations means that we have to focus on the early stages of shrub colonisation. In this paper, we present a modelling approach that includes deterministic matrix modelling to understand demography strategy at the very beginning of shrub population growth and to identify potential targeted life stages for control. We collected demographic data over a period of 5 years on the European dominant shrub, Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom; Fabaceae), which is often part of the heathlands that establish themselves on former permanent grasslands in Europe. Our results reveal a very high variation in flowering frequency between years and a large contribution of the seed bank to the total number of seedlings that emerge each year. Modelling shows that population growth is very vigorous and is not stopped by repeated “bad years” for seed production. Sensitivity analyses indicate that early life stage survival (seedling, juvenile) has the greatest impact on population growth. These results make it possible to identify juveniles as one of the best targets for control since they combine a high degree of sensitivity in terms of population demography, good palatability for domestic herbivores and easy accessibility within a management schedule.