Estimating confidence of European WFD ecological status class and WISER Bioassessment Uncertainty Guidance Software (WISERBUGS)

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires estimates of the confidence and precision associated with any scheme for assessing and monitoring the ecological status class of any European rivers, lakes, transitional or coastal waters. This is a complex important issue, especially for waterbody assessments based on multiple metrics and/or two or more taxonomic groups. This paper aims to contribute towards improving understanding and providing practical approaches to assessing confidence of class by (i) discussing the various sources and causes of uncertainty, (ii) using UK rivers macroinvertebrate datasets to illustrate the estimation of replicate, temporal and spatial variance components and the implications for water body metric precision, confidence of class and optimal sampling design, (iii) introducing new freely available general software WISER Bioassessment Uncertainty Guidance Software (WISERBUGS) which uses prior sampling uncertainty estimates with user-specified metrics, class limits and metric combination rules to simulate the joint sampling uncertainty in metric EQR values and provide estimates of confidence of class based on individual metrics, (optionally weighted) multi-metric indices and/or multi-metric classification rules (worst case, mean or median class) based on one or more WFD biological quality elements.