Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems |
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Authors: | Charles L Nunn Peter H Thrall Kelly Stewart Alexander H Harcourt |
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Institution: | (1) Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 04103 Leipzig, Germany;(2) Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, USA;(3) CSIRO Plant Industry, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia;(4) Department of Anthropology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA |
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Abstract: | Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence
in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what
conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically,
we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from
disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality
and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic
fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration
of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous)
groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of
infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous
groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that
population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas,
with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal
when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease
in wild mammals. |
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Keywords: | Social systems Emerging infectious disease Individual-based model Ecological simulation African apes Ebola hemorrhagic fever Conservation |
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