New Analytic Results for Speciation Times in Neutral Models |
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Authors: | Tanja Gernhard |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Mathematics, Kombinatorische Geometrie (M9), TU München, Bolzmannstr. 3, 85747 Garching, Germany |
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Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the standard Yule model, and a recently studied model of speciation and extinction, the “critical
branching process.” We develop an analytic way—as opposed to the common simulation approach—for calculating the speciation
times in a reconstructed phylogenetic tree. Simple expressions for the density and the moments of the speciation times are
obtained.
Methods for dating a speciation event become valuable, if for the reconstructed phylogenetic trees, no time scale is available.
A missing time scale could be due to supertree methods, morphological data, or molecular data which violates the molecular
clock. Our analytic approach is, in particular, useful for the model with extinction, since simulations of birth-death processes
which are conditioned on obtaining n extant species today are quite delicate. Further, simulations are very time consuming for big n under both models. |
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Keywords: | Phylogenetics Yule model Critical branching process Reconstructed process |
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