The present distribution and predicted geographic expansion of the floodwater mosquito Aedes sticticus in Sweden

The mass emergence of floodwater mosquitoes, in particular Aedes sticticus and Aedes vexans, causes substantial nuisance and reduces life quality for inhabitants of infested areas and can have a negative impact on the socio‐economic conditions of a region. We compared the previous, present, and predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus in Sweden. Previous records from the literature until 1990 list the species in three out of 21 Swedish counties. Beginning in 1998, studies show that the present distribution of the species covers 11 counties, with highest abundances in an east‐west belt in Central Sweden. Using climate data from the present and predicted climate scenarios, the expected distribution of Ae. sticticus in 2020, 2050, and 2080 could be modelled using GIS. As variables, mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation between May and August and degree slope were chosen. The predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus will continue to increase and include 20 out of 21 Swedish counties. The expected temperature rise will increase the suitable area towards the northern part of Sweden by 2050. Some non‐suitable areas can be found along the south‐east coast due to insufficient amount of precipitation in 2050 and 2080. Modelling the expected distribution of a species using predicted climate change scenarios provides a valuable tool for risk assessments and early‐warning systems that is easily applied to different species and scenarios.