Reconstructing the past density of planktivorous fish and trophic structure from sedimentary zooplankton fossils: a surface sediment calibration data set from shallow lakes

1. As quantitative information on historical changes in fish community structure is difficult to obtain directly from fish remains in lake sediments, transfer function for planktivorous fish abundance has been developed based on zooplankton remains in surface sediment (upper 1 cm). The transfer function was derived using weighted average regression and calibration against contemporary data on planktivorous fish catch per unit effort (PF-CPUE) in multiple mesh size gill nets. Zooplankton remains were chosen because zooplankton community structure in lakes is highly sensitive to changes in fish predation pressure. The calibration data set consisted of thirty lakes differing in PF-CPUE (range 18–369 fish net^–1), epilimnion total phosphorus (range 0.025–1.28 mg P l^–1) and submerged macrophyte coverage (0–57%). 2. Correlation of log-transformed PF-CPUE, total phosphorus and submerged macrophyte coverage v the percentage abundance in the sediment of the dominant cladocerans and rotifers revealed that the typical pelagic species correlated most highly to PF-CPUE, while the littoral species correlated most highly to submerged macrophyte coverage. Consequently, only pelagic species were taken into consideration when establishing the fish transfer function. 3. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that the pelagic zooplankton assemblage was highly significantly related to PF-CPUE (axis 1), whereas the influence of total phosphorus and submerged macrophyte coverage was insignificant. Predicted PF-CPUE based on weighted average regression without (WA) and with (WA(tol)) downweighting of zooplankton species tolerance correlated significantly with the observed values (r² = 0.64 and 0.60 and RMSE = 0.54 and 0.56, respectively). A marginally better relationship (r² = 0.67) was obtained using WA maximum likelihood estimated optima and tolerance. 4. It is now possible, quantitatively, to reconstruct the historical development in planktivorous fish abundance based on zooplankton fossil records. As good relationships exist between contemporary PF-CPUE data and indicators such as the zooplankton/phytoplankton biomass ratio, Secchi depth and the maximum depth distribution of submerged macrophytes, it is now also possible to derive information on past changes in lake water quality and trophic structure. It will probably prove possible further to improve the transfer function by including other invertebrate remains, e.g. chironomids, Chaoborus, snails, etc., and its scope could be widened by including deeper lakes, more oligotrophic lakes, more acidic lakes and lakes with extensive submerged macrophyte coverage (in the latter case to enable use of the information in the fossil record on plant-associated cladocerans).