Modernization and childlessness among the governorates of the Arab Republic of Egypt, 1976

This paper examines the degree to which childlessness is influenced by levels of modernization among the governorates of the Arab Republic of Egypt. The data have been derived mainly from the 1976 Population and Housing Census of the Arab Republic of Egypt. The childlessness rates used are based on census data on number of children born to married women. In 1976, the higher the levels of modernization, the lower the rates of childlessness among women aged 30 and over, and the higher the rates of childlessness among women aged 20-30. The lower rates are found in and around Cairo, and some of the governorates with higher rates are in Upper Egypt. Of the 25 governorates, Suez has the lowest childlessness rate. To some degree, the patterns of childlessness may be affected by changing patterns in age-specific 1st marriage rates. The childlessness rates for the younger women in the Egyptian governorates are associated with some of the modernization variables. The findings suggest that childlessness among women aged 30 and older is mostly involuntary, but that for younger women it is partly voluntary. Increases in modernization among the Egyptian governorates should, therfore, result in net increases in rates of childlessness and net decreases in fertility. There are at least 3 statistically independent sources of variation in modernization which characterize the governorates of Egypt: factors that reflect structural development, female status, and health personnel.