| Abstract: | Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace. |
