| Abstract: | Dead shoots of colonies of a leafy hepatic species, Lophozia silvicola , are replaced by shoots developing from asexual propagules, the gemmae. Observations of two populations of L. silvicola showed a strong decreasing seasonal trend in germinability of the gemmae. We suggest that the non-germinating gemmae enter dormancy, and that the proportion of gemmae entering dormancy is season-specific. We assume that there are two types of gemmae, dormant and non-dormant and that only the dormant gemmae can survive during winter. Using a stochastic individual-based cellular automaton model, we investigated whether selection on season-specific dormancy fraction would lead to a decreasing proportion of germinating gemmae. Thus the germination schedule is the evolving trait in the model. Parameter estimates for the model were based on data collected from a population of L. silvicola in southern Finland over a three-year study period. In the simulations, the germination schedule shaped by evolutionary change was similar to the observed pattern. Thus the modelling results give support to the dormancy hypothesis. The qualitative pattern of decreasing germinability towards the end of the growing season is robust. Quantitative predictions are influenced by changes in parameters; for example, if winter mortality of shoots increases relative to mortality during the growing season, production of an increased fraction of dormant gemmae is favoured, especially at the end of the season. |
