Wildlife Trade and the Emergence of Infectious Diseases |
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| Authors: | Louise Swift Paul R Hunter Alexander C Lees Diana J Bell |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Medicine, Health Policy and Practice, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;(2) School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;(3) School of Biological Sciences, NR4 7TJ, Norwich, UK |
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| Abstract: | Most recent emerging infectious diseases have been zoonotic in origin. It is our contention that one of the factors responsible
for such emergence is the trade in wildlife and bushmeat in particular. This article considers the effect of increasing diversity
in the species hunted on the probability of global epidemics such as SARS. In particular, we develop a mathematical model
of the probability of such an outbreak in terms of the number of species hunted, the number of susceptibles, and the rate
of contact. Hence, we postulate that local biodiversity loss and increasing rates of animal trafficking, and trade and transportation
of animals to large cities—where there is a greater potential for person-to-person transmission—may increase the probability
of such outbreaks dramatically. |
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| Keywords: | Biodiversity bushmeat transmission coefficient epidemic |
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