Preoperative levels of natriuretic peptides and the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND:Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with clinically significant short- and long-term complications after noncardiac surgery. Our aim was to describe the incidence of clinically important POAF after noncardiac surgery and establish the prognostic value of N-terminal pro–brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in this context.METHODS:The Vascular events In noncardiac Surgery patIents cOhort evaluatioN (VISION) Study was a prospective cohort study involving patients aged 45 years and older who had inpatient noncardiac surgery that was performed between August 2007 and November 2013. We determined 30-day incidence of clinically important POAF (i.e., resulting in angina, congestive heart failure, symptomatic hypotension or requiring treatment) using logistic regression models to analyze the association between preoperative NT-proBNP and POAF.RESULTS:In 37 664 patients with no history of atrial fibrillation, we found that the incidence of POAF was 1.0% (95% confidence interval CI] 0.9%–1.1%; 369 events); 3.2% (95% CI 2.3%–4.4%) in patients undergoing major thoracic surgery, 1.3% (95% CI 1.2%–1.5%) in patients undergoing major nonthoracic surgery and 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%–0.3%) in patients undergoing low-risk surgery. In a subgroup of 9789 patients with preoperative NT-proBNP measurements, the biomarker improved the prediction of POAF risk over conventional prognostic factors (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001; fraction of new information from NT-proBNP was 16%). Compared with a reference NT-proBNP measurement set at 100 ng/L, adjusted odds ratios for the occurrence of POAF were 1.31 (95% CI 1.15–1.49) at 200 ng/L, 2.07 (95% CI 1.27–3.36) at 1500 ng/L and 2.39 (95% CI 1.26–4.51) at 3000 ng/L.INTERPRETATION:We determined that the incidence of clinically important POAF after noncardiac surgery was 1.0%. We also found that preoperative NT-proBNP levels were associated with POAF independent of established prognostic factors. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00512109","term_id":"NCT00512109"}}NCT00512109

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common arrhythmia that occurs after noncardiac surgery¹ and is associated with prolonged hospital stays and an increased risk of stroke and death,^2–8 both of which raise societal costs.⁹ The reported incidence of POAF ranges from 3.7% to 21.0% in patients undergoing thoracic surgery^3,10 and from less than 0.5% to 10.0% in patients undergoing noncardiac, nonthoracic surgery (Appendix 1, Supplementary Table 1, available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.200840/tab-related-content).^6,11Brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a neurohormone released by cardiomyocytes in response to volume and pressure overload.¹² This biomarker has an established role in the diagnosis and management of heart failure and in predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.¹³ Although natriuretic peptides have been shown to predict new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in the nonsurgical setting reliably,^14–18 their value in predicting POAF after noncardiac surgery is unclear.^19–21The Vascular events In non-cardiac Surgery patIents cOhort evaluatioN (VISION) Study was a prospective international cohort study involving a representative sample of adults who underwent noncardiac surgery that required an overnight hospital stay. One of the predefined objectives in VISION was to determine the incidence of new-onset, clinically important POAF. We aimed to describe the overall and surgery-specific incidence of POAF after noncardiac surgery and to investigate the association between preoperative N-terminal pro–brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and POAF. We hypothesized that measurement of NT-proBNP would improve POAF risk prediction beyond conventional prognostic factors.