The Sibyla model and development of beech forests affected by air pollution

The paper deals with the health status, production and structure of autochthonous beech stands in the eastern part of the Krkonoše Mts. (Czech Republic). The region was affected by increased air pollution load due to long-range SO₂ transmission from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. In 1980, five research plots were established in long unmanaged beech stands at an optimum stage. Tree coordinates and initial biometrical measurements were made in 1980 and repeated in 2005. The defoliation of individual trees was monitored every year (ICP Forests principles). The actual stand development is compared with the model development worked out by the Sibyla growth simulator in variants with a model of natural mortality and with entering a real mortality of trees. Differences between the stand characteristics of actual and simulated development of forest stands suggest some production losses. The reason to the losses can be seen in the long-term impact of air pollution in the first decade of monitoring and its after-effects on soil quality and worsening health condition of stands. The anticipated acceleration in the onset of the phase of stand disintegration under the influence of air pollution load was not demonstrated.