Population viability analysis of Walia ibex (Capra walie) at Simien Mountains National Park (SMNP), Ethiopia

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been applied to the management of many threatened populations. The objective of this study was, therefore, to estimate the PVA of Walia ibex at the Simen Mountains National Park, in the north‐central highlands of Ethiopia, with respect to population growth parameters, the probability of the population reaching a lower extinction threshold and the mean time to extinction. Direct census of the population was carried out in 2009. Secondary census data were also collected from park authorities and the literature reviews. The result revealed that the estimates of the infinitesimal mean, μ (0.04117) was greater than the infinitesimal variance, σ² (0.0219). The probability that the population reaches the extinction threshold was very low (0.15%). The mean time required for the counts to decline from the existing population size to one individual animal was 160 years. But threatened species are adversely affected by changes in landscape. These changes can be brought by short‐ and long‐term human and climate change impacts, respectively. Therefore, with the absence of environmental and demographic stochasticity and, with the application of appropriate reproductions and habitat management, the population of Walia ibex will be viable and reaches its mean time of extinctions after 160 years.