产业集聚对雾霾污染与生态效率的非线性影响及溢出效应

新常态背景下,"降霾增效"是促进城市协调可持续发展的重要保障。基于2008-2017年我国269个地级市面板数据,利用ArcGIS空间分析、EBM-DEA、空间杜宾等模型,探究雾霾污染与生态效率的时空演化格局及产业集聚对其非线性影响及空间溢出效应。结果显示：（1）我国城市雾霾污染具有"块状"与"集群分布"特征,并呈现以京津冀城市群为中心的"核心-边缘"扩散模式;城市生态效率呈东部 > 中部 > 西部依次递减态势,其H-H型城市主要分布在东部沿海地区;（2）产业集聚是"双刃剑",其对雾霾污染与生态效率的影响存在显著的"U"型关系,即产业集聚每提升1%,雾霾污染和生态效率相应降低0.1388%和0.1409%,产业集聚平方项每提升1%则相应提升0.0188%和0.0113%;（3）产业集聚进一步提升对本地与邻近城市的雾霾污染具有较强的正向空间溢出效应,地方政府应采取联防联控的污染治理策略,构建长效环境治理合作机制;（4）产业集聚规模对雾霾污染和生态效率的影响表现出一定的区域异质性,应设计差异化的产业发展策略,为城市"降霾增效"提供支撑;通过重构权重矩阵、替换核心解释变量与设置滞后变量,证明了上述主要结论的稳健性。当前我国正处于工业文明向生态文明转换的关键阶段,期望本研究能为区域可持续发展提供参考。

Non-linear impact and spillover effects of industrial agglomeration on haze and ecological efficiency

Under the new normal background, reducing haze and increasing ecological efficiency is an important guarantee to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of cities. This paper first uses the panel data of 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2017, combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis and super-efficiency EBM-DEA model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of haze pollution and ecological efficiency. Secondly, this paper combines the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and partial differential equations to explore the nonlinear impact of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution and ecological efficiency and its spatial spillover effects. The results show that:(1) urban haze pollution in China has the characteristics of "blocky" and "cluster distribution", and presents a "core-edge" diffusion model centered on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration; The overall urban ecological efficiency is low, showing a decreasing trend in the order of East > Central > West, and its H-H cities are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas. (2) Industrial agglomeration is a double-edged sword, and its impact on haze pollution and ecological efficiency has a significant U-shaped relationship. Specifically, for every 1% increase in the industrial agglomeration, haze pollution and ecological efficiency will decrease by 0.1388% and 0.1409%, and every 1% increase in industrial agglomeration square items will increase by 0.0188% and 0.0113%. (3) Industrial agglomeration has a strong spatial spillover effect on haze pollution and ecological efficiency in local and neighboring cities. Specifically, industrial agglomeration has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on haze pollution and ecological efficiency in local and neighboring cities, while the further increase of industrial agglomeration has the opposite impact on haze pollution and ecological efficiency. Therefore, local governments should adopt a pollution control strategy of joint prevention and control to construct a long-term environmental governance cooperation mechanism. (4) The impact of industrial agglomeration scale on haze pollution and ecological efficiency shows strong regional heterogeneity. The ecological efficiency of high-value industrial agglomeration areas increased with the expansion of their agglomeration scale, while the low-value areas failed the significance test. This result indicates that government departments should actively formulate differentiated industrial development strategies to provide important support for cities to reduce haze and improve ecological efficiency. We proved the robustness of the above main conclusions by reconstructing the weight matrix, replacing the core explanatory variables and setting the lagged variables. China is currently in the critical stage of the transition from industrial civilization to ecological civilization, and it is hoped that this study can provide a reference for regional sustainable development.