Possible impact of global warming on cabbage root fly (Delia radicum) activity in the UK

A program for simulating the patterns of egg-laying by populations of the cabbage root fly was used to model the effects of global warming on future cabbage root fly attacks. An increase of 3°C in mean daily temperature would cause the cabbage root fly to become active about a month earlier in the year than at present. Under such conditions, the emergence of flies from the overwintering population would be less synchronised, as the completion of diapause and post-diapause development would occur at the same time in different individuals within the population. However, there would continue to be only three generations of fly each year, even in the south of England. With temperature increases of 5°C or 10°C, the fly would complete four generations each year and aestivation would seriously disrupt egg-laying. These rises in temperature would have a major impact on cabbage root fly activity and would require new strategies for controlling this pest.