人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的持续发展——伊春市人口的系统分析与调控对策

本文讨论了人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统持续发展的关系,指出了人口问题是决定复合生态系统持续发展的关键因素。只有人口与复合生态系统的各个方面相互适应,复合生态系统持续发展的目标才能得以实现。本文以伊春市为实例,系统地分析了伊春人口的发展过程,采用系统动力学的方法,建立了伊春人口的系统动力学模型,并以此模型对伊春人口进行了系统仿真和预测,同时提出了解决伊春人口问题的调控对策。

POPULATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL-ECONOMIC-NATURAL COMPLEX ECOSYSTEM:SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND REGULATION STRATEGIES OF THE POPULATION OF YICHUN CITY

With man as a link, the socil system, economic system and natural system are integrated into a complex system, the social-economic-natural complex ecosystem (SENCE), although they are different with each other. In this paper, the relationship between population and sustainable development of SENCE is studied. It is pointed out that population is the key factor for the sustainable development of SENCE,and that the goal of the sustainable development of SENCE can not be realized unless the population is coordinated with the various aspects of SENCE.In the case study of Yichun city, the development process of Yichun population is analyzed, the crisises of the forest resources, economic development and environment of Yichun city due to the rapid growth of Yichun population are investigated, the system dynamics model of Yichun population is established, and the strategies to regulate Yichun population are proposed according to the results from artificial analysis and forecast with the system dynamics model.