Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird |
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| Authors: | Kristen Ruegg Rachael A. Bay Eric C. Anderson James F. Saracco Ryan J. Harrigan Mary Whitfield Eben H. Paxton Thomas B. Smith |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Center for Tropical Research, Institute for the Environment and Sustainability, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA;2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA;3. Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA;4. Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Santa Cruz, CA, USA;5. The Institute for Bird Populations, CA, USA;6. Southern Sierra Research Station, Weldon, CA, USA;7. U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii Volcano National Park, HI;8. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability – the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype–environment relationships – indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate‐associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype–environment relationships into landscape‐scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups. |
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| Keywords: | climate change ecological genomics genomic vulnerability local adaptation |
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