Theoretical models of melanism in Biston betularia—a review

The various theoretical models that have been constructed to explain the spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of the melanic morph of the moth Biston betularia are reviewed. The assumptions that are made in these models are discussed. It is shown that these models do explain the gross features of the spatial and temporal distribution of melanic variety in England and Wales. The models have been fairly successful in quantitative prediction of the observed decline in the frequencies of the melanic forms by relating selective differentials to the sulphur dioxide levels. Thus these models do yield a reasonable and consistent picture of the gross pattern of changes in melanic frequencies within the limitation of the available data. The models are robust and can thus accommodate changes to the data on the biology and behaviour of the moth. It is shown that neither heterozygote advantage nor non-Darwinian mechanism need to be invoked to understand the observed evolution of melanism in B. betularia.