A model for the time–temperature–mortality relationship in the chill-susceptible beetle, Alphitobius diaperinus, exposed to fluctuating thermal regimes

Exposing insects to a fluctuating thermal regime (FTR) compared with constant low temperature (CLT) significantly reduces cold-induced mortality. The beneficial effects of FTR result from physiological repair during warming intervals. The duration and the temperature experienced during the recovery period are supposed to strongly impact the resulting cold survival; however, disentangling the effects of both recovery variables had not been broadly investigated. In this study, we investigate cold tolerance (lethal time, Lt₅₀) of the polyphagous beetle Alphitobius diaperinus. We examined adult survival under various CLTs (0, 5, 10 and 15 °C), and under 20 different FTR conditions, where the 0 °C exposure alternated with various recovery temperatures (Rt) (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) combined with various recovery durations (Rds) (0.5, 1, 2, 3 and 4 h). Under CLTs, Lt₅₀ increased with temperature until no mortality occurred above the upper limit of cold injury zone (ULCIZ). Under FTRs, Lt₅₀ increased with both Rt and Rd. The magnitude of the survival gain was clearly boosted when Rt was above the ULCIZ (at 20 °C). Based on a data matrix of lethal times with multiple Rt×Rd combinations, a predictive model showed that cold survival increased exponentially with Rt and Rd. This model was subsequently validated with additional survival tests. We suggest that increasing recovery durations associated with optimal recovery temperatures eventually leads to a progressive chilling compensation.