Worst case scenario match analysis and contextual variables in professional soccer players: a longitudinal study

This study aimed to describe the worst-case scenarios (WCS) of professional soccer players by playing position in different durations and analyse WCS considering different contextual variables (match half, match location and match outcome). A longitudinal study was conducted in a professional soccer team. Data were collected from different WCS durations in the total distance (TD), high-speed running distance (HSRD), and sprinting distance (SPD). A mixed analysis of variance was performed to compare different WCS durations between playing positions and contextual variables, making pairwise comparisons by Bonferroni post hoc test. Positional differences were found for TD (p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.02), HSRD (p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.01) and SPD (p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.02). There was a significant interaction when comparing WCS by match half in TD (F = 6.1, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.07) but no significant differences in HSRD (p = 0.403, ω_p² = 0) or SPD (p = 0.376, ω_p² = 0). A significant interaction was identified when comparing WCS by match location in TD (F = 51.5, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.14), HSRD (F = 19.15, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.05) and SPD (F = 8.95, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.01) as well as WCS by match outcome in TD (F = 36.4, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.08), HSRD (F = 13.6, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.04) and SPD (F = 7.4, p < 0.01, ω_p² = 0.02). Positional differences exist in TD, HSRD, and SPD in match-play WCS, and contextual variables such as match half, match location and match outcome have a significant impact on the WCS of professional soccer players.