The effect of environmental factors on floating fresh marsh end-of-season biomass

We used both stepwise and quantile regression to determine the sources of environmental variation that explained the observed inter-annual variation in end-of-season freshwater floating marsh aboveground biomass over an 18-year period. The vegetation at our study site had high species diversity with an average of 20 species recorded from 10 0.25 m⁻² plots. However, Panicum hemitomon was clearly the dominant contributing 74% of the total biomass. Only three other species (Solidago sempervirens, Vigna luteola, and Thelypteris palustris) were so common that they were sampled in all years. We expected that the most important factors controlling interannual variation in aboveground biomass are temperature and nitrogen availability. We also expected that nitrogen availability to the plants is affected by water movement through and under the mat driven by precipitation (lower N), evaporation (transportation of higher N waters to roots), and local runoff (higher N). Stepwise regression analysis indicated that P. hemitomon average biomass was negatively related to average water level and positively related to maximum water level and had a curvilinear response with TKN. Using quantile regression the best fit for P. hemitomon maximum-biomass with two parameters was obtained using hot days (positive relationship) and maximum water level (negative relationship). Both analytical methods showed maximum water level (negative relationship) and cold front passage (positive relationship) to be the environmental parameters that best explained interannual variation in S. sempervirens biomass. V. luteola biomass was positively related to temperature. Stepwise regression added chloride concentration as an additional positive parameter explaining V. luteola biomass, while quantile regression identified nitrogen as an important positive parameter. Both analytical methods identified pH, TKN, and water level as environmental parameters that were negatively correlated with T. palustris biomass. The overall negative effect of water level on all species was unexpected in this floating mat system. We initially assumed that higher water levels were due to higher runoff which should have a positive effect on biomass. However, higher water levels may also be related to a higher retention time in this fresh-water tidal system, which decreases water exchange and nutrient replenishment.