Threshold behaviour of a SIR epidemic model with age structure and immigration

We consider a SIR age-structured model with immigration of infectives in all epidemiological compartments; the population is assumed to be in demographic equilibrium between below-replacement fertility and immigration; the spread of the infection occurs through a general age-dependent kernel. We analyse the equations for steady states; because of immigration of infectives a steady state with a positive density of infectives always exists; however, a quasi-threshold theorem is proved, in the sense that, below the threshold, the density of infectives is close to 0, while it is away from 0, above the threshold; furthermore, conditions that guarantee uniqueness of steady states are obtained. Finally, we present some numerical examples, inspired by the Italian demographic situation, that illustrate the threshold-like behaviour, and other features of the stationary solutions and of the transient. Supported in part by FIRB project RBAU01K7M2 “Metodi dell’Analisi Matematica in Biologia, Medicina e Ambiente” of the Italian Ministero Istruzione Università e Ricerca