Attempts to model the bloom dynamics of Pyrodinium, a tropical toxic dinoflagellate

For the first time, several models have been used to aid in the understanding of the bloom dynamics of Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum, the major causal organism of toxic algal blooms in Manila Bay and several areas in the tropical world. The complex life cycle of Pyrodinium includes the formation of cysts that settle at the sediments, which can serve as the inoculum for the next bloom.The seasonal variation of temperature and salinity reflects the combined effects of convection and water column stability, which can control vertical movement of plankton and other parameters essential to its growth. The significance of wind forcing appears to be related to the potential to resuspend cysts. In the absence of wind, tidal currents in the inner part of the bay may be too weak to induce resuspension. The addition of wind results in a significant increase in bottom current velocity. Off Cavite at the southeast, bottom velocity is enhanced by orbital motion due to waves, one of the reasons why sediments off this area are dominated by sandy material. The strong vertical mixing of the water column at depths of less than 10 m may influence nutrient and consequently, plankton populations.The wave field during the southwest monsoon indicates that its contribution to the bottom velocity dominates in this area of the bay.Bloom simulations using combined bio-physical parameters show that direction of advection is almost always along wind direction. The dispersal distances increases if the Pyrodinium cells are found higher in the water column. For cells originating from southeastern (Cavite) sources, the direction of transport is slightly towards the north. In either case, the formation of cysts after a bloom is adjacent to the northern area (Pampanga) for blooms originating from the western side (Bataan) and along the eastern side (Parañaque–Manila) for blooms originating from the southeastern side (Cavite). Comparison with a few records of bloom occurrences in Manila Bay shows some consistent features. Reports of these blooms also showed that they occurred almost always during spring tides. There appears to be two main systems for bloom formation: one fed by cyst beds in the west (Bataan) which is advected along the west–northwest coast (Bataan–Bulacan) while the other one is fed by the southeast (Cavite) cyst beds that dominates in the east-southeast (Parañaque–Cavite) area.