基于遥感及突变理论的生态环境脆弱性时空演变——以黄河三角洲垦利县为例

本文应用熵、突变论等非线性科学理论研究生态环境脆弱性问题，借助遥感手段，设置生态环境样方，对黄河三角洲垦利县典型生态脆弱区的生态环境脆弱性的时空演变进行了系统研究，建立了生态环境脆弱性的分析与判断方法.结果表明：在1987—2005年间，样方生态环境趋于恶化，其生态环境脆弱性在1997年和2004年发生了两次突变，前者主要源于风暴潮和黄河来水量的减少，主要表现为生境的变化和优势种的更替；后者主要源于黄河来水量的减少和蒸降比的升高及水库的大量修建、道路和人口密度的增加，生态环境脆弱性主要表现为植被类型和覆盖率的变化.在空间层面，从与黄河和海洋不同距离的两个方向上，分析了生态环境脆弱性的空间变化，证明了生态环境脆弱性空间上的渐变性.该研究对生态环境脆弱性的定量化研究是一个新的尝试，并提供了一种新的有效方法.

Spatiotemporal variation of eco-environmental frangibility based on remote sensing and catastrophe theory: A case study of Kenli County in Yellow River Delta, China.

Based on remote sensing and the nonlinear theories of entropy and catastrophe, the spatiotemporal variation of eco environmental frangibility in Kenli County of Yellow River Delta was analyzed through the installation of sampling plots. The methods of analyzing and estimating eco environmental frangibility were also established. The results indicated that in 1987-2005, the environment of Kenli County tended to deteriorating, and two catastrophes of environmental frangibility occurred, one in 1997, and the other in 2004. The former catastrophe was mainly caused by storm tide and the water shortage from Yellow River, with the main appearance characteristics being habitat change and dominant species substitution, while the latter one was mainly from the water shortage from Yellow River, increase of evaporation-precipitation ratio, a great deal construction of reservoir, and increases of traffic road and population density, with the main appearances of the changes in vegetation type and coverage ratio. The analysis on the spatial variations of the environmental frangibility along the directions of different distances to the Yellow River and to the ocean testified the spatial gradual change pattern of the frangibility. This research was a new attempt, and provided an effective way for the quantitative easurement of environmental frangibility.