Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models |
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Authors: | Ira B Schwartz |
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Institution: | (1) U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Code 6520, 20375 Washington, D.C., USA |
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Abstract: | A seasonally forced nonlinear SEIR epidemic model is used to simulate small and large amplitude periodic outbreaks. The model is shown to exhibit bistable behavior for a fixed set of parameters. Basins of attraction for each recurrent outbreak are computed, and it is shown that the basins of two coexisting stable outbreaks are intertwined in a complicated manner. The effect of such a basin structure is shown to result in an obstruction in predicting asymptotically the type of outbreak given an uncertainty in the initial population of susceptibles and infectives. |
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Keywords: | Bistability forced nonlinear differential equations measles epidemics predictability |
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