Survival,site fidelity,and the population dynamics of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan

ABSTRACT To conserve threatened species, managers require predictions about the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on population growth that in turn require accurate estimates of survival, birth, and dispersal rates, and their correlation with natural and anthropogenic factors. For Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus), fledging rate is often more amenable to management than adult survival, and population models can be used to estimate the productivity (young produced per breeding female) necessary to maintain or increase populations for given levels of survival. We estimated true survival and site fidelity of adult and subadult (from fledging to second year) Piping Plovers breeding in Saskatchewan using mark‐resight data from 2002 to 2009. By estimating true survival rather than apparent survival (which is confounded with permanent emigration), we were able to provide more accurate projections of population trends. Average adult and subadult survival rates during our study were 0.80 and 0.57, respectively. Adult survival declined over time, possibly due in part to the loss of one breeding site to flooding. Average adult and subadult site fidelity were 0.86 and 0.46, respectively. Adult site fidelity declined during our study at two study sites, most strongly at the flooded site. Male and female Piping Plovers had similar survival rates, but males had greater site fidelity than females in some years. Based on our survival estimates, productivity needed for a stationary population was 0.75, a benchmark used for plover management on the Atlantic Coast, but not previously estimated for Prairie Canada. In stochastic simulations incorporating literature‐based variation in survival rates, productivity needed for a stationary population increased to 0.86, still lower than that previously estimated for western populations. Mean productivity for our study sites ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 fledged young per pair. Our results suggest that fledging rates of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan were sufficient to ensure a stationary or increasing population during our study period. However, large‐scale habitat changes such as drought or anthropogenic flooding may lead to dispersal of breeding adults and possibly mortality that will increase the fledging rate needed for a stationary population.