基于能值分析的中国生态经济系统可持续发展评估

本文基于能值理论全面评估了2006—2016年中国的可持续发展水平,并根据一次能源投入比例的不同将各省份分为4组进行比较分析,讨论一次能源投入水平对省域间可持续发展水平的影响。结果表明: 2006—2016年,随着经济快速增长,一次能源投入比例不断上涨,使得我国整体生态经济系统的环境负荷由2.78升至3.13。同时,受进口增加的影响,能值产出率相对下降,可持续性指标下降至5.40。能值密度变化趋势与一次能源投入比例的变化基本一致,目前大多数省份依旧通过能源消费带动区域经济发展。其中,北京、上海等虽现代化经济高度发达,但环境压力同样高于其他省份,可持续发展水平不容乐观。以江苏为代表的南方省份能源投入较低而能值产出较高,表现出较高的可持续发展活力。因此,提升内陆地区能源利用效率、调整经济发展模式,并适当减缓发展强度,以缓解经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾,可以令我国稳步实现生态经济的可持续发展。

Evaluation of sustainable development of eco-economic systems in China based on emergy analysis

We comprehensively evaluated the sustainable development level in China from 2006 to 2016 based on emergy theory. According to the differences in the proportion of primary energy input, all the provinces in China were divided into four groups for inter-provincial comparison to further examine the impacts of primary energy input on the sustainable development. The results showed that under the high economic development, the continuous increase in the primary energy input rate enhanced the environmental load rate of Chinese eco-economic system from 2.78 to 3.13. Meanwhile, the increases in imports led to a decline in emergy yield rate and a decline in emergy sustainable index to 5.40. Results of inter-provincial comparison showed that the trend of emergy per area was generally consistent with the change in the primary energy input rate. Currently, economic development in most provinces was dependent on energy consumption. Among them, sustainable development in cities with dual characteristics of highly developed economics and significant environmental pressures was not optimistic, including Beijing and Shanghai. Provinces in southern China with lower energy input and higher emergy yield were stronger in sustainable development, with Jiangsu as the most representative province. Consequently, improving the efficiency of energy utilization in inland provinces, adjusting the mode of economic development and appropriately slowing down the intensity of economic development could fully alleviate the contradiction between economic growth and environmental protection, and thus steadily achieve sustainable development of ecology and economy.