Modelling animal populations in changing landscapes

Models of Mobile Animal Populations (MAP models) simulate long-term land use changes, population trends and patterns of biological diversity on landscapes of 10³-10⁵ ha. MAP models can incorporate information about past land-use patterns and management practices and can project future patterns based on management plans. We illustrate this approach with an example of how implementation of a U.S. Forest Service management plan at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, U.S.A., might influence population trends of Bachman's Sparrow Aimophila aestivalis, a relatively rare and declining species in southeastern pine forests. In this case, a management plan, largely designed to improve conditions for an endangered species, Red-cockaded Woodpecker Picoides borealis, may have a negative impact, at least in the short term, on another species of management concern, Bachman's Sparrow.
In a parallel processing version of the MAP models, a single landscape that would ordinarily be too large or detailed to be simulated on a single computer is subdivided into a number of smaller landscapes, and each landscape is simulated in parallel, either on a single multi-tasking machine or on a group of networked machines. With this approach we are attempting to determine just how large a landscape must be before the dynamics of a population within it are more or less independent of factors beyond the landscape boundaries.