| Abstract: | In this article, a simple stochastic model for the time to first conception of a cohort of married women is developed, by identifying three states, ‘adolescent sterile’, ‘ovulating’ and ‘conceived‘, into which they can be placed. It is demonstrated that the model provides a close fit to observed data. The estimates of the parameters in the model, can be used to calculate the number of women in each state at different points of time and also to obtain estimates of the probabilities of conception for the two categories of women, adolescent sterile and biologically mature. |
