Surviving background extinction: Inferences from historic and current dynamics in the contrasting population structures of two endemic Mexican cycads

Ecological and microevolutionary perspectives were used to investigate signs of background extinction in two endemic species. We studied relict populations of the cycad Dioon caputoi, contrasting its population structure and neighborhood size with those of Dioon planifolium as a demographically healthier reference population. Population dynamics analysis was performed on two populations of D. caputoi through Integral Projection Models and genetic neighborhoods compared between species through 172 Inter Simple Sequence Repeat loci performed in one population of each of the two study species. The D. caputoi populations mostly comprised adult plants, while D. planifolium presented mainly juvenile individuals. Dioon caputoi showed equilibrium in population growth (i.e., λ ≈ 1), with low recruitment, and its genetic neighborhood revealed highly related individuals in a unique distance class (r_ij = 0.407, 33 m). A contrasting pattern was found in D. planifolium, which showed higher relatedness in the first distance class (r_ij = 0.543, 5 m), gradually decreasing to 20 m. The discrepancies between the two species reflect different strategies of persistence. Dioon caputoi conserves a relict dynamics with signs of a multigenerational, attritional loss of reproductive fitness, while D. planifolium does not. This study furthers our understanding of the background extinction process and the information will thus contribute to the management and conservation of this endangered species.