2000—2018年深圳市植被覆盖动态变化与预测

采用Landsat系列多时相影像数据,以像元二分法估算植被覆盖度,运用线性回归分析、重心迁移等方法来探究深圳市2000—2018年植被覆盖的时空变化特征,并结合CA-Markov模型对深圳市未来土地覆盖情况进行预测。结果表明: 2000—2018年,深圳市植被覆盖呈明显的地域分异特征,在区域上表现为东部大于西部、南部大于北部,此分异特征与区域地形效应具有良好的一致性。植被覆盖度重心的空间迁移特征为西北-东南-西北,迁移速率为551.2 m·a^-1,此进程与深圳市城市化进程密切相关。2000—2018年间,深圳市植被覆盖度总体呈改善趋势,改善速率为0.005·a^-1,其中,植被覆盖度显著改善和退化的面积比例分别为30.8%和12.8%。采用CA-Markov方法分理论、自然两种情景对深圳市2024年土地覆盖/利用类型进行预测,两种预测方法所得土地覆盖/利用类型的面积所占比例之间没有显著差异,其差异阈值在0~1.2%。与2018年之前相比,2024年深圳市乔木林、耕地等转化为建设用地的比例将明显减少,但供需矛盾仍然紧张。

Dynamic change and prediction of vegetation cover in Shenzhen,China from 2000 to 2018

With landsat-series multi-temporal image data, percentage of vegetation cover (PVC) was estimated by pixel dichotomy. The linear regression analysis and center of gravity migration methods were used to explore the characteristics of the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation cover in Shenzhen from 2000 to 2018. The CA-Markov model was combined to predict future land cover in Shenzhen. The results showed that the PVC in Shenzhen demonstrated obvious regional differentiation characteristics from 2000 to 2018. The eastern region occupied larger proportion than the wes-tern part, while the southern region was larger than the north part. This feature exhibited good consistency with regional topographic effect. The spatial migration characteristic of the center of gravity of PVC was from northwest to southeast, and then from southeast to northwest, with a migration rate of 551.2 m·a^-1. This process was closely related to urbanization in Shenzhen. The PVC in Shen-zhen tended to be generally improved from 2000-2018, with a improvement rate of 0.005·a^-1. The percentage of significantly improved and degraded PVC area was 30.8% and 12.8%, respectively. The CA-Markov method was used to predict the land cover/use pattern of Shenzhen in 2024 under two scenarios, theoretical scenario and natural scenario. There was no significant difference in proportion of the area of the land cover/use patterns obtained by the two kinds of prediction method, with the difference threshold being 0-1.2%. Compared with the data before 2018, the proportion of arbor forests and arable land converted into construction land in Shenzhen would be significantly reduced in 2024, whereas the contradiction between supply and demand would be still tense.