黑河流域生态系统服务价值预测及权衡分析--以张掖市为例

土地利用变化将改变区域生态系统服务的稳定供给能力,进而对区域生态稳定和可持续发展构成威胁。中国西部地区快速城镇化背景下,扩张的经济发展需求对土地利用变化产生了重大影响。以丝绸之路经济带规划的重要节点城市张掖市为例,基于土地利用变化均衡分析(CGELUC)模型及土地利用动态模拟(DLS)模型,模拟了多情景下张掖市2010-2030年的土地利用变化时空分异特征,并通过生态系统服务价值(ESV)估算、空间自相关分析等方法分析并预测了ESV及其时空演变特征,集中分析了多情景下2030年张掖市ESV各项服务间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明:(1)2010-2030年张掖市土地利用格局变化显著,建设开发情景下城镇建设用地扩张最为剧烈,建设用地增长7.41%,耕地面积减少11.05%;生态保护情景下城镇扩张最为和缓,同时未利用地减少明显,面积降低1088km²,主要向林地、草地、水域等生态用地发生转化。(2)2010-2030年张掖市ESV在基准情景和生态保护情景下分别增长6.43、13.16亿元,建设开发情景则整体仅增加1.53亿元。(3)供给、调节、支持与文化4种单项ESV,基准和生态保护情景下均呈现显著上升趋势;建设开发情景下有3项呈现缓慢的增长趋势,且该情景下供给服务则始终呈现下降趋势。(4)各单项生态系统服务协同关系明显,东南-西北轴线南北两侧区域表现为协同关系,仅有少数区域表现为权衡关系,且供给-文化服务的权衡关系较为明显。本研究可为西部城镇化快速发展地区统筹经济发展与生态保护提供科学方案。

Prediction and trade-off analysis of ecosystem service value in Heihe River Basin: A case study in Zhangye City

Land use change will change the stable supply of regional ecosystem services, which poses threat to regionally ecological stability and sustainable development. Under the rapid urbanization in western China, the expanded demand for economic development has a significant impact on land use change. This paper took Zhangye City, an important node city of the Silk Road Economic Belt plan, as an example to simulate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land use change under multiple scenarios during 2010-2030 based on the model of Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and the model of Dynamics of Land System (DLS). We analyzed and predicted the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) and their spatial and temporal characteristics in Zhangye City from 2010 to 2030 under multiple scenarios, and analyzed the trade-off and synergistic relationship among various kinds of ESV services in 2030, using the methods of ESV estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that (1) the land use pattern changed significantly from 2010 to 2030, and the expansion of urban built-up area under the construction and development scenario was the most dramatic. The built-up area increased by 7.41% and the cultivated land area decreased by 11.05%; the urban expansion under the ecological protection scenario was the most moderate, while the unused land decreased significantly with an area of 1088 km², and mainly converted to ecological land such as forest area, grassland, and water area. (2) From 2010 to 2030, the ESV of Zhangye City increased by 643 million yuan and 1.316 billion yuan, respectively, under baseline scenario and ecological protection scenario, while the overall increase was only 153 million yuan under the construction and development scenario. (3) The values of four individual ecosystem services, including supply, regulation, support, and culture all showed an upward trend under the baseline and ecological protection scenarios. Under the construction and development scenario, the value of three kinds of ecosystem services showed a slow growth trend, while the value of supply service always showed a downward trend. (4) Each kind of ecosystem service showed synergistic relationship obviously. The regions on the north and south sides of the southeast-northwest axis showed a synergistic relationship obviously. Only a few regions showed trade-off relationship, where the trade-off relationship between supply and cultural service was the most obvious. This paper provided a scientific solution for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the rapidly urbanizing areas in western China.