Modelling the effect of forest cover on shallow landslides at the river basin scale |
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| Authors: | James C Bathurst C Isabella Bovolo Felipe Cisneros |
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| Institution: | 1. CNR IRPI, via Madonna Alta 126, 06128, Perugia, Italy;2. Università degli Studi di Perugia, Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, via A. Pascoli, 06123, Perugia, Italy;3. CNR IRPI, via Cavour 6, 87036, Rende (CS), Italy;4. CNR IRPI, via Amendola 122 I, 70126 Bari, Italy;5. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell''Ambiente e delle Risorse, Largo San Marcellino 10, 80138, Napoli, Italy;1. International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) c/o NGI, Sognsveien 70, 0855 Oslo, Norway;2. University of Oslo, Department for Geosciences, Sem Sælands vei 1, 0371 Oslo, Norway;3. University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany;4. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway;1. Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore;2. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong |
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| Abstract: | The potential for reducing the occurrence of shallow landslides through targeted reforestation of critical parts of a river basin is explored through mathematical modelling. Through the systematic investigation of land management options, modelling allows the optimum strategies to be selected ahead of any real intervention in the basin. Physically based models, for which the parameters can be evaluated using physical reasoning, offer particular advantages for predicting the effects of possible future changes in land use and climate. Typically a physically based landslide model consists of a coupled hydrological model (for soil moisture) and a geotechnical slope stability model, along with an impact model, such as basin sediment yield. An application of the SHETRAN model to the 65.8-km2 Guabalcón basin in central Ecuador demonstrates a technique for identifying the areas of a basin most susceptible to shallow landsliding and for quantifying the effects of different vegetation covers on landslide incidence. Thus, for the modelled scenario, increasing root cohesion from 300 to 1500 Pa causes a two-thirds reduction in the number of landslides. Useful information can be obtained even on the basis of imperfect data availability but model output should be interpreted carefully in the light of parameter uncertainty. |
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