Forecasting the effects of sea-level rise at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve in the Yangtze Delta,Shanghai, China |
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| Authors: | Bo Tian Liquan Zhang Xiangrong Wang Yunxuan Zhou Wen Zhang |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;2. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands;3. Deltares, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands;1. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;2. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands;3. Deltares, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Located at the mouth of the Yangtze Estuary, the Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve is extremely vulnerable to climate change and especially to accelerated sea-level rise. We use a variety of data from remote sensing, an in situ global positioning system (GPS), tidal gauges, nautical charts, geographic spatial analysis modeling and IPCC sea-level rise scenarios to forecast the potential impacts of increased sea level on the coastal wetland habitat at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve. The results indicate that around 40% of the terrestrial area of the Dongtan Reserve will be inundated by the year 2100 due to an estimated 0.88 m increase in sea level. In particular, the Scirpus mariqueter communities and bare tidal flats are more vulnerable to sea-level rise. The limitations of this approach and the implication of the results for wetland and ecosystem conservation as well as management are discussed. |
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